Because of the shrinking spending power of the middle classes, because demographics are increasingly adverse, and because more and more capital that really should be employed productively is instead used to service existing debt, we know that economic growth will, with 99.9% likelihood, be quite soft for years to come.
That doesn’t mean we cannot enjoy a phenomenally good year every now and then, but it does mean that Trump’s promise to the American populace that he can deliver 3.5-4.5% annual GDP growth consistently is a pie in the sky.
Trump has already promised that he will reduce the tax burden; he has in fact declared that he will make tax cuts across the board – to individuals and to corporates.
The Congressional Budget Office has done some interesting work around the current proposal (as the chart shows), and they have found that – if implemented – the tax cuts will benefit the top 1% of income earners the most. No less than 75% of the proposed tax change will fall into the pockets of the top 1%, whereas the bottom 80% - many of whom voted for Trump – will hardly benefit at all.
However, it is the spending power of the global middle classes – which would include the vast majority of US income earners – that needs to be boosted, if the economy is to get going again. Trump’s tax plans do absolutely nothing to fix that problem.